COVID-19 data analysis

The current coronavirus outbreak represents a formidable challenge to governments and healthcare professionals around the world. The speed at which the virus has spread has left most countries scrambling for a response and often highlights how poorly prepared their institutions and healthcare systems are equipped to deal with a pandemic of this proportion.

Although the human toll and scope of this health crisis exceed any in modern history, our ability to contain, manage and overcome it will depend in part on our capacity to predict the possible evolution of the disease in the coming months and to forecast with greater accuracy what is required in terms of supplies, medical equipment, and staff, for example.

This is why Addinsoft, the maker of XLSTAT, has developed a tool that allows you to gain valuable insight into the latest COVID-19 data available through the ECDC. The tool will enable you to make predictions on the number of new cases, mortality rates and more, and direct your efforts to areas where they are most needed.

Our COVID-19 data analysis resource, designed for hospitals, healthcare professionals and state and local authorities, provides users with a concise view of the global, national and local data they may require to get a clearer picture of the situation.

We hope this new tool will be of service to you in your ongoing fight against the virus and are extremely grateful for your determination and hard work.

Installation of the tool

To access the tool, you will need Excel installed on your computer (version 2016 or later for Mac users, Excel 2007 and later for Windows users), and the latest XLSTAT version. If you are currently using our trial version or if you have a valid license, you can download this version for free at:

• Windows: https://www.xlstat.com/xlstat.exe
• Mac: https://www.xlstat.com/xlstat.dmg

If you have never used before XLSTAT, you can download it at https://www.xlstat.com/en/download.

Installation instructions are available at:

https://help.xlstat.com/s/installation-and-licensing?language=en

How to activate the COVID-19 tool?

Once XLSTAT is installed, open Excel. In the Excel ribbon (or toolbar), an XLSTAT tab will appear. Go to the tab, then click the > icon to start XLSTAT.

Depending on the XLSTAT version you are using - paid, trial or free - you will see a different set of features, but all will include a COVID-19 data analysis tool. To activate the COVID feature, you first need to go to the > menu, then choose Options and activate the COVID-19 option.

Once you click Save and then Close, the COVID-19 feature is displayed.

How to use the COVID-19 tool?

Upon clicking on the COVID-19 icon, the following dialog box will appear:

1. Import from ECDC

The default option for the import of the data is "Import from ECDC". This option allows XLSTAT to automatically download the latest ECDC the data available. We recommend you use this option on a daily basis if you want to access the most recent information. available For your information, the ECDC updates its data daily, usually every afternoon. If you want to update the dataset before the ECDC releases new figures, you can insert rows in the data imported from the ECDC as long as you respect the organization's data format.

2. Use the active workbook

If you do not want to reimport data because you have already loaded it, simply choose "Active workbook" as the option to obtain data. XLSTAT will automatically import the data from the first sheet of the workbook. You can use your own data, but the XLSTAT expects the exact same format (column headers) as for the ECDC data.

3. Selecting your own data

If you'd like to use your own data (if you are managing several hospitals for instance) you can choose "Select your data" and select your own data. You currently need to select the data corresponding to cases, deaths, dates, and entities (if you are working on data for a single entity, you still need to have a column with the name of the entity on each row. This constraint will be removed shortly).

If you want to remove countries from your analysis, you can click the "Filter out countries" option at any time.

In the Options tab of the dialog box, there are a few additional options. One allows you to select any country (or entity) you wish to focus on. This will allow you to see the predictions of the XLSTAT model (see below) from the beginning of the outbreak until today.

There is currently only one model available. It is based on the double exponential Holt Winters smoothing model. You can choose how far back in time (number of days) you wish to collect the data.

The COVID analysis results

You can then click on the OK button to run your analysis. XLSTAT automatically processes the data, generates summary statistics and builds predictions and charts.

The first table displays the general statistics for each available country, excluding the ones you may have filtered out. For all countries in which the outbreak started before January 1, 2020, the ECDC has merged all prior data into a unique dataset (31st Dec 2019).

After the start date (which is not accurate for countries where cases had been already reported in 2019), you will find the number of days since the first case, the total number of cases, the total number of deaths, the maximum number of cases per day, the maximum number of deaths per day, the last number of cases, the last number of deaths, the predicted number of cases for the next date, the predicted number of deaths for the next day, the number of days predicted before the number of cases doubles, and the same for fatalities.

A second table displays the 10 countries with most deaths recorded.

The table is followed by a chart that compares the number of days before the number of cases and/or deaths are expected to double. That number is not displayed if it is above 10 or if it could not be computed.

XLSTAT displays a chart that gives each country a trajectory since the number of deaths exceeded 2. The scale on the y axis is log. You can compare the situation for each country.

A race chart is then displayed (Excel 2010 and later only) so that you can track the evolution of the number of fatalities for the same 10 countries day after day (the day is displayed at the top).

If a focus on a specific country was requested the last table displays the predictions performed by the model on a day by day basis. It also gives the predictions for the number of expected cases over the next 5 days, assuming that the counting method does not change and that no aggravating factors occur. When some countries reach their peak, the model will be inaccurate until the decrease stabilizes. The model does not detect the peak in its current version. We can see hereunder the results obtained for Italy on March 31st. In the last two columns we can see an estimate of the prediction error based on previous prediction errors, a concept that differs from the confidence interval but that we believe is more accurate.

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The last chart displays the data and the model predictions for both cases and deaths.

Want to contribute?

We would be delighted to hear from you. If you detect bugs, problems or have any suggestions for improvements, please email us at support@xlstat.com. We are all in this fight together and, by working as a team we will be all that more effective.

Stay safe!

Thierry Fahmy, CEO Addinsoft

About Addinsoft XLSTAT

THE LEADING DATA ANALYSIS AND STATISTICAL SOLUTION FOR MICROSOFT EXCEL®

XLSTAT is a powerful yet flexible Excel data analysis add-on that allows users to analyze, customize and share results within Microsoft Excel. With over 220 standard to advanced statistical features available, XLSTAT is the preferred tool for statistical analysis in businesses and universities, large and small, and for 100,000+ users in over 120 countries across the world.